The BEIS Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project — the largest UK heat pump field trial, monitoring 742 installations — recorded a median seasonal performance factor of 2.80. Verified installations tracked by Heat Geek report an average SCOP of 4.40. Open-source data from HeatPumpMonitor.org sits at 3.86.
The gap between 2.80 and 4.40 is not explained by hardware differences. The same compressor technology, the same refrigerant cycles, the same product lines appear in both datasets. What differs is how the systems were commissioned.
The installation quality problem
The root causes are well documented. Flow temperatures left at factory defaults. Weather compensation not activated. Systems oversized relative to actual heat loss, leading to short cycling and compressor wear. Radiators undersized for heat pump flow temperatures, forcing the system to run hotter than necessary.
None of these are technology failures. Every one is a commissioning decision — or the absence of one. The Energy Saving Trust's earlier field trial of 83 systems reached the same conclusion: installation quality was the primary contributor.
For OEMs, this gap drives warranty claims, repeat service visits, and reputational damage at precisely the moment the market needs to scale.
Why self-reported checklists fail
The Microgeneration Certification Scheme operates on a self-certification model. Installers issue their own MCS certificates. Certification bodies conduct periodic audits, but the frequency and depth cannot keep pace with current market growth. Industry reporting has identified cases where certificates did not match installed equipment.
Benchmark Commissioning provides a paper-based framework for recording correct setup. It relies on the installer to report accurately. There is no independent data verification, no cross-reference against actual system behaviour, and no mechanism to detect whether factory defaults were left unchanged after the paperwork was signed.
The exception is Mitsubishi Electric's Diamond Quality Partners programme, which requires independent third-party validation. It is the closest the industry has to governed commissioning verification — but it operates through periodic physical inspections, not continuous data analysis.
The 48-hour verification challenge
Consider what would change if an OEM could verify commissioning quality within 48 hours of installation.
A connected heat pump generates data from its first hours of operation: flow temperatures, return temperatures, compressor cycling patterns, defrost frequency, weather-adjusted output. Compared against an expected performance envelope for that property and external conditions, these data points reveal whether the installation was correctly commissioned — or left on factory defaults with weather compensation disabled.
The cost of a single warranty callout typically sits between 200 and 400 pounds. When the root cause is an undetected commissioning error, the same unit generates repeat visits across the warranty period. On a fleet of 10,000 connected units, even a conservative estimate of 15 per cent with commissioning issues represents over half a million pounds in annual warranty exposure.
Early detection also changes the relationship between OEMs and their installer networks. Data-backed feedback on specific issues — not a generic audit finding six months later — turns quality assurance from a punitive process into a constructive one.
Regulatory pressure is building
The Clean Heat Market Mechanism places an obligation on boiler manufacturers to ensure a proportion of their sales are heat pump credits. The Year 2 target for 2026/27 is 8 per cent — approximately 90,000 to 130,000 credits — with a penalty of 3,000 pounds per missed credit. This forces OEMs to scale installation volumes rapidly.
Scaling volumes through an installer base that is itself scaling creates compounding quality risk. The Heat Pump Association reported in November 2024 that 39 per cent of those who complete heat pump training do not go on to install heat pumps. The market is reliant on a workforce where experienced and inexperienced installers operate side by side with no systematic way to distinguish the quality of their work.
The Future Homes Standard will compound this pressure, requiring all newly built homes to produce at least 75 per cent lower CO2 emissions. Heat pumps are the primary compliance technology. Performance verification at commissioning will shift from a quality differentiator to a regulatory expectation.
What governed commissioning verification looks like
Governed commissioning verification replaces self-reported checklists with an evidence trail built from operational data. The system analyses actual behaviour against expected performance from the first hours of operation. Every assessment is recorded with its inputs, its findings, and the recommended corrective action — creating an auditable chain from installation through to ongoing performance.
This is not remote monitoring. Monitoring observes. Governed verification interprets, diagnoses, and produces evidence that can be acted upon — by the OEM service team, by the installer, or by the certification body. It benchmarks installer performance across the network, identifying where additional support would have the greatest impact.
The commissioning quality gap is a systemic problem that requires a systemic response. Individual audits cannot scale. Self-certification has demonstrable limitations. Condition-based monitoring that produces a governed evidence trail is the decision architecture that closes the gap between what the technology can deliver and what installations actually achieve.
Aeterno builds commissioning verification and performance assurance for heat pump OEMs. The platform sits alongside existing connected product ecosystems, analysing operational data to identify commissioning issues within 48 hours of installation and providing the evidence trail that supports warranty management, installer development, and regulatory compliance.