[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":92},["ShallowReactive",2],{"resource-/resources/the-homes-moved-on-the-records-didnt":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"audience":6,"author":6,"body":7,"category":71,"date":72,"description":73,"draft":74,"extension":75,"image":76,"imageAlt":77,"meta":78,"navigation":79,"path":80,"pdfPath":6,"resourceType":6,"seo":81,"series":6,"stem":82,"tags":83,"visibility":90,"__hash__":91},"resources/resources/the-homes-moved-on-the-records-didnt.md","The Homes Moved On. The Records Didn't.",null,{"type":8,"value":9,"toc":63},"minimark",[10,14,17,22,25,28,32,35,38,42,45,48,51],[11,12,13],"p",{},"Every large landlord is planning the same decade: get the stock to EPC C by 2030, hold the Decent Homes line, and defend every pound of it to a board. Those plans are built on records, and for most of the stock the records are older than the works.",[11,15,16],{},"An EPC is valid for ten years, and nothing obliges a new one when a home is improved. The 2010s and 2020s put insulation into social housing at scale through grant programmes, works that were funded, delivered and signed off, and then never made it back into the certificate. A home that got its loft topped up in 2016 can still wear its 2014 assessment today. Multiply that by tens of thousands of homes and the baseline your investment plan stands on is a photograph of the stock as it used to be.",[18,19,21],"h2",{"id":20},"the-cost-runs-in-both-directions","The cost runs in both directions",[11,23,24],{},"Plan on stale records and you pay twice. You price works the stock has already had: insulation programmes re-specified for homes that quietly meet the target. And you miss the homes genuinely at risk, because the record that overstates one home understates another. The planners who own this problem know it: the first months of any programme go into cleansing and reconciling data before a single decision can be defended, and every reporting cycle (the statistical returns, the year-end carbon number) repeats the exercise by hand.",[11,26,27],{},"The uncomfortable truth is also the good news: much of the sector is in a better position than its records show. The works happened. The evidence exists: in works histories, in grant documentation, in the register's own timeline. It just was never brought back together into one defensible statement of where each home stands now.",[18,29,31],{"id":30},"re-deriving-the-baseline","Re-deriving the baseline",[11,33,34],{},"Re-derivation means rebuilding the picture of every home from the full evidence trail: the register record, the works that followed it, the building physics that connects them. The result states what it rests on: which figures the record supports, which are inferred from the works history, and which are missing. The method says what it does not know. That is what makes the baseline defensible: when a number is challenged, you show where it came from.",[11,36,37],{},"A governed baseline is a means, though, and the end is the plan. Once every home carries a current, evidenced model, the questions that matter become computable rather than argued: the exhibit above is one of them, run on 24,924 homes.",[18,39,41],{"id":40},"what-the-plan-looks-like-when-its-computed","What the plan looks like when it's computed",[11,43,44],{},"The exhibit above is one such computation, on 24,924 homes reconstructed from public records: one conservative fabric package (loft top-ups and cavity fills, applied only where the evidence honestly supports the measure) run through a full modelled year, before and after. Median heat demand falls from 6,320 to 5,520 kWh a year. The chart on the right is the part boards remember: ordered by predicted gain, the first 10% of homes carry 65% of the total. The plan's answer to \"which homes first\" is a curve, and the defensible ask is the knee of it.",[11,46,47],{},"That is the shape of planning on a re-derived baseline: which homes first, what gets each one to target, what it costs, and whether it performed as promised, with each answer traceable to the evidence that supports it, as the exhibit's method notes show.",[11,49,50],{},"The plan is only as good as the baseline under it. Start where the records ended, and the decade gets cheaper.",[11,52,53],{},[54,55,56,57,62],"em",{},"Modelled data, reconstructed from public EPC records; figures and method as stated on the exhibit. See ",[58,59,61],"a",{"href":60},"/housing","For Housing & Place"," for how the governed model composes into place-level investment views.",{"title":64,"searchDepth":65,"depth":65,"links":66},"",3,[67,69,70],{"id":20,"depth":68,"text":21},2,{"id":30,"depth":68,"text":31},{"id":40,"depth":68,"text":41},"articles","2026-07-14","Social housing plans its next decade of investment on energy records that predate a decade of works. Re-deriving the baseline, home by home and with provenance, changes what the plan says, and what it costs.",false,"md","/images/resources/articles/exhibit-04-one-fabric-package-1600x900.png","Exhibit 04, modelled data: two charts for 24,924 modelled London homes. Left, the stock's annual heat demand before and after one conservative fabric package, median falling from 6,320 to 5,520 kWh a year. Right, a cumulative priority curve showing the first 10% of homes carry 65% of the total gain.",{},true,"/resources/the-homes-moved-on-the-records-didnt",{"title":5,"description":73},"resources/the-homes-moved-on-the-records-didnt",[84,85,86,87,88,89],"housing and place","EPC","baseline","retrofit planning","governed intelligence","EPC C 2030","public","IuQl784E66TUYzTzxqOz9FsoqY30E9Y1CVw33KlgPTs",1784257969688]